2018 Delta Media Salon: IPCC releases important report as world approaches “1.5°C rise”

October 8, after the recent celebration of the 30th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Global Warming of 1.5°C was released. The report is being recognized as the most important climate science proof since the birth of the Paris Agreement. It is the first study to compare the different global warming scenarios between a 1.5 °C and a 2°C rise, and will be used as a reference for policies during COP24 in Poland.

At the same time of IPCC special report’s release, the Delta Foundation has organized the second “Delta Media Salon” to broadcast the press conference in Songdo, South Korea live, with simultaneous interpretation of the event. The Foundation also obtained the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) in the report through an exclusive channel, to inform the Taiwanese people of international climate news. Although the event was held in the morning of Monday, nearly 50 opinion leaders from the press, research community, and industries attended the live broadcast and shared their opinions.

The cover of IPCC special report “Global Warming of 1.5°C”, raising the awareness of global warming with an artistic painting

Key Analysis: 1.5°C Temperature Rise Creates Incredible Impact

In fact, the special report that garnered a lot of attention originated from the Paris Agreement.The Paris Agreement was signed at COP21 in 2015 and was once seen as a victory for the climate change camp. However, there was a lot of debate on the global warming control target. Therefore in the end, the written accord says “Global warming should be controlled within 2°C, but efforts could be made towards 1.5°C.” This is because 1.5°C is the bottom line of survival for those in the frontline of the extreme climate, such as island countries and vulnerable areas. Now three years later, IPCC has released the “Global Warming of 1.5°C”, which responds to the requests of island nations and is the latest scientific proof for all countries to reinforce actions for carbon reduction.

The report starts with the claim that once the global mean surface temperature rise exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, there will be large and irreversible changes in the environment. The temperature rise will likely reach 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052. The mid-latitudes regions will warm by up to about 3°C at global warming of 1.5°C. For the Arctic Ocean, 1.5°C of global warming makes “ice-free sea during summer” highly possible in this century. This likelihood is increased to at least one per decade with 2°C global warming.

For marine biology, existing coral reefs are projected to decline by 70–90% at 1.5°C global warming; with 2°C, 99% of the coral reefs will be destroyed. For water resources, more than 100 million people will face water scarcity with 1.5°C global warming, but at 2°C global warming, this number will double. As for the most sensitive “Carbon Budget” issue, the remaining carbon budget for a global warming controlled within 1.5°C is 420 to 580 GtCO2. If we calculate using the current annual global emissions of 42 GtCO2, the time left for humans to salvage the situation is continuing to shrink.

If the temperature rise is limited to a maximum of 1.5°C, the world's greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) must be reduced by 40% to 60% from 2010 levels by 2030. “Global Warming of 1.5°C” also states the net zero must be reached in this century (2045 to 2050). “Industry” emissions must be reduced by 75–90% from 2010 levels. “Construction” GHG intensity must be reduced by 64% while the electricity share is raised by 55-75% (under the condition that the power system reaches net zero). “Transportation” has a higher burden, where the share of low-emission energy by various transportation would rise from less than 5% in 2020 to about 35–65% in 2050.

The Delta Foundation presents key items of the SPM in the “Global Warming of 1.5°C” special repor

Scientific reports in the past with various assessments that mention a rise limited to 2°C mostly set the time for net zero to be achieved by around 2075. In comparison, the suggestion of “Global Warming of 1.5°C” to pull up the schedule (around 2050) is significantly earlier. Therefore, IPCC experts pointed out that we must, with unprecedented force, aggressively undertake actions including renewable energy, building energy efficiency, electrical vehicles (EV), carbon storage and carbon capture, land management, biofuel crops, forestation, and all kinds of carbon reduction plans. The global carbon emissions must begin to drop not later than 2030 to stop Earth in the process of warming.

IPCC Media Salon Live Broadcast

Expert analysis, parallel actions inenergy efficiency, transport, and energy

In order to follow up on the report’s status, the Delta Foundation has been in contact with and participating in the United Nations Climate Change Conference since 2007. This year, our special envoy Zhan Yi-Xie was sent there to be stationed at Songdo in South Korea one week ahead of the event. She also obtained the opportunity to participate in the event from NGO contacts in the Global Climate Community as the only Taiwanese representative and closely observed the review process for “Global Warming of 1.5°C”.

Furthermore, the Delta Foundation also interviewed three international experts at the event on their analysis of the highlights of this report and its significance. Senior Consultant Dr. Manfred Treber of the Germanwatch thinks that for the transport sector to reach “carbon neutral” in this century, the sales of internal combustion engine vehicles must be completely banned by 2030, while public transportation system usage percentages must be increased. These are quite difficult for many nations.

Greenpeace CEO Jennifer Morgan, who visited Taiwan last year, provided her analysis that the key strategy is “coal reduction” while having better public transportation and energy efficiency, and following the trend of capital investments. Professor Dong-Woon Noh, who represents the local hosting nation South Korea government, further emphasized the importance of “electricity de-carbonization”, and calls for existing energy systems to replace fossil fuels as soon as possible!

In response to the local conditions in Taiwan, Delta’s presentation on the day referenced the “The Past and Future of the Climate in Taiwan” released by the Ministry of Science and Technology at the beginning of this year, and local experts were also invited to help analyze the information.

Besides immediately translating international reports, Delta also invited two local experts, Emeritus Professor George Chen of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Taiwan University (NTU) (center) and Deputy Director-General Mark Cheng of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) (second from the left), to speak about it at the event

George Chen, Emeritus Professor of the NTU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, is a former NTU Vice President who was given the name the “Plum Rain Expert”. In his observation, Taiwan is located in the subtropical region with limited land and a large population, and certainly has the tendency to warm up faster than the world. Related climate risks are very important. CWB Deputy Director-General Mark Cheng reminded us that the actions in response to climate change must include “energy conservation and carbon reduction” (mitigation) as well as “adaptation”. For many regions on the frontline of global warming, the wisdom to co-exist with extreme climates are even more important.

Delta's spokesperson and Assistant Vice-President of Corporate Sustainable Development Jesse Chou shared Delta’s actions such as passing the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) and proposing the goal of 56.6% greenhouse gas intensity reduction by 2025 compared with 2014. Also, in order to accelerate the transport sector move to low carbon, Delta has recently announced its participation in “EV100” International EV initiative, to use various corporate resources to assist climate actions.

At the end of the event, Delta Foundation CEO Guo Shan-Shan said to the nearly over-crowded venue “We don't have the option of choosing plan A or plan B but to accept them all, and complete every task!” Exactly. Faced with the final warning of the 1.5°C global warming issued by IPCC, we must hurry up our actions towards carbon reduction.

Climate risks scenario comparison between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming; figure created by World Wildlife Fund

Reference / 
IPCC “Global Warming of 1.5°C”1.5°C Report SPM Download Chinese version of SPM and other information