The ideal and reality of carbon emission: Emission Gap Report 2019

Comparing current carbon emission growth to car racing, the situation is equivalent to a car dashing out of the runway without braking, and getting out of control. It is unlikely that we can return to the original path of carbon reduction and try to catch up. With the current situation, we are far from the original Paris Agreement goal.

This year, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published “Emissions Gap Report” for the 10th consecutive year. Comparing global greenhouse gas emissions forecast with Paris Agreement goal, the result is not favorable. Let’s take a look at what happened. 

Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise despite scientific warning and political commitments

In the last decade, greenhouse gas emissions have risen at a rate of 1.5% per year, with only a brief stabilization between 2014 and 2016. In 2018, greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land-use change, reached 55.3 gigatons carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), a new historical record; and carbon emission generated from fossil energy and industry reached 37.5 gigatons CO2e, a 2.0% increase and another historical high. 

The worst part is, there is no sign that carbon emission has reached its peak at present. According to estimates, if carbon emission reaches its peak in 2020, 2030 emission has to be 25% lower than that of 2018 in order to control global warming within 2°C; to further control global warming within 1.5°C, a 55% reduction has to be attained. Unfortunately, according to current carbon emission trend, it is unlikely that the world has any solutions in reducing carbon emissions every year starting from next year.

Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase

Reduction of carbon emissions by one-third in 2030; the gap is large

The report also estimates that with no changes in the countries’ policies, 2030’s global carbon emissions will be 60 gigatons CO2e. In 2015 Paris Agreement, the countries submitted their own carbon emission targets, where unconditional NDCs can only reduce 2030 carbon emissions to 56 gigatons, which is still far from the target of 41 gigatons for 2°C, not to mention a gap of 32 gigatons for the 1.5°C target. 

Based on the estimates of unconditional NDC, even if the carbon reduction commitments in Paris Agreement are fulfilled, the world will still see an increase of temperature by 3-3.2°C at the end of this century. Comparing such situation to car racing, the current carbon emission growth is equivalent to an out-of-control car which has dashed out of the runway without breaking. Returning to the original path of carbon reduction and catching up is highly unlikely, as the gap between the current situation and the original Paris Agreement goal is huge.

The difference of one degree Celsius relies on the countries’ determination

In summary, the reason for such a big gap is the inadequate unconditional NDCs by the countries, resulting in the inability to achieve the goals. It is estimated that the countries need to increase their contribution commitments by 3 times, and the world’s annual carbon emissions reduction need to reach 3% in order to realize the 2°C goal. To achieve the 1.5°C goal, unconditional NDCs have to be increased by more than 5 times, and the annual carbon reduction has to be 7%. 

In view of this, many countries have successively submitted further reduction commitments in recent years to show their determination. A total of 65 countries and local governments such as that of US California, including five G20 members, have set net-zero emissions targets.

After including carbon emissions from manufacturing end into consuming countries, we can see the changes in carbon footprint in consuming countries like Europe and USA, and in manufacturing countries such as China and India (source: Emissions Gap Report 2019)

Let’s take a look at what the countries can do. The report listed six aspects of solutions to work on, including in-depth transformation to narrow the emissions gap, urban climate governance, digitalization, land use, food security, and bioenergy. In terms of energy, the report proposes expanding the use of renewable energy, increasing electrification, phasing out coal for rapid decarbonization of the energy system, as well as decarbonizing transport and industrial sectors with high electrification. It seems that the world has many solutions at present, and what left to be done is for us, who live in the same global village, to show our determination and execution power.

Source: Emissions Gap Report 2019