Sales of electric vehicles still remain undimmed although currently impacted by pandemic

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Media (BNEF) recently released its Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020. As impacted by Covid-19, global passenger car sales are expected to plummet by an unprecedented 23% this year, while sales of electric vehicles are also expected to fall by 18%. The short-term decline, however, does not result in detract from the future trend of continuous growth of electric vehicles. Why?

Attack of Covid-19 hits sales of electric vehicles with shorter-term pain for long-term gain

Checking the current sales of global electric vehicles, there are over 7 million electric passenger cars and 500,000 electric buses, nearly 400,000 electric delivery vans and trucks and 184 million electric motorcycles, most of which have grown “explosively” over the recent years. Due to outbreak of pandemic, sales of electric vehicles saw a double-digit decline this year. Nevertheless, the backlog of orders, presentations of new model vehicles and support from Europe and Chinese government will always make sales of electric vehicles better than those of fossil fuel vehicles.

As analyzed in the Bloomberg report, by the middle of the year, prices of electric vehicles and conventional fossil fuel vehicles will come to the same level in most markets, and sales of electric vehicles is very likely to triple in three years (2023). Currently, about 13 countries and 31 cities or regions have announced the goal of phasing out fossil fuel trucks. With the policy support, annual sales of electric passenger cars can be expected to surge to 58% by 2040.

Annual sales of electric passenger cars will continue to grow around the world

With reduction of fossil fuel use, electric vehicles turn out to be the low-carbon choice for consumers 

The Covid-19 has seriously punched fossil fuel consumption of passenger cars, making the demand hard to return to last year’s level. As such, the current use of electric vehicles has reduced about 1% of fossil fuel consumption and carbon emissions. When it comes to 2040, electric vehicles are expected to reduce the demand for 18 million barrels of crude oil!

Electric vehicles only cause a slight increase in global electricity demand

Electric vehicles can reduce oil combustion, but they can also increase electicity consumption. As estimated by the report, the global electric passenger cars will consume 1,290 TWh in 2040. Together with other electric vehicles, such as electric commercial vehicles, buses and two-wheelers, the total global electricity demand will merely increase by 5.2%.

The report’s analysis covers the data of shared transport, electric vehicle batteries and power charging stations. According to current ends, shared miles will account for 16% of the total driving mileage in 2040 (it was only 5% last year). By having gradually introduced new battery chemistry and manufacturing technology on equipment over the years, the battery pack price will be likely to reduce to a milestone of less than US$100 per kilowatt-hour in four years (2024). Most importantly, while nearly a million public charging stations have been installed worldwide, 290 million charging stations will still be needed throughout the world by 2040 to support the growing number of electric vehicles. Hence, when promoting electric vehicles, the government shall also reinforce relevant infrastructures, so as to reduce the plight of “mileage anxiety”.